Is Tanking Really Ruining the NBA?

Tanking shouldn’t be a concern in any sport. The very idea of any sport or athletic pursuit is to see who performs the best with 100% effort. But franchises like Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz have been fined for benching star players toward the end of games. Are teams really trying to lose games in order to get better draft picks, and how big of a problem is it?

Big names are calling out the problem

NBA commissioner Adam Silver said that tanking is worse this year than in previous seasons. Silver said there is now a “destigmatisation around certain behaviours” and the league will make “substantial changes” for next season.

The Brooklyn Nets’ Michael Porter Jr said he doesn’t like how teams are “deliberately tanking”.

In 2021, academics analyzed games from 2006 to 2018 and found empirical evidence that teams rested healthy players more often after they’d been eliminated from playoff contention.

The issue has now become so prevalent that Yahoo! Sports ran a piece entitled “NBA Tanking Rankings” in which the Pacers were accused of “doing their darnedest” to finish with the worst record.

The Guardian writer Sean Ingle has said that with European eyes, NBA seasons are “far too long” and encourages teams who are not competing for the playoffs to lose interest. Ingle says that as long as losing teams are rewarded with better picks, there will be an incentive to tank.

The 2026 draft is “so deep”

Compounding the problem of teams with nothing to play for is the depth of the upcoming draft. An Eastern Conference scout recently told ESPN that the 2026 Draft is “so deep” with many impact players, and that next year’s isn’t looking as good.

Among the leading talents are AJ Dybantsa of BYU, Cameron Boozer of Duke, and Caleb Wilson of North Carolina, Darryn Peterson of Kansas, and Caleb Wilson of North Carolina.

Can any tanking teams actually still win the Championship?

In short, no.

According to the current NBA odds, Oklahoma City Thunder are favorites for the Championship, followed by Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs, and Denver Nuggets.

The Pacers?, the Jazz, the Nets, Sacramento Kings?, Washington Wizards?, New Orleans Pelicans?, and Dallas Mavericks have all been accused of tanking this season.

The Wizards are at around 1000/1 on some sportsbooks for any fan who fancies an outside bet (emphasis on “outside”). The Pelicans are at around 500/1 - 1000/1. The Mavericks have a slightly bigger chance according to some bookmakers.

What’s the solution?

As Ingle noted, the NBA is unlikely to adopt a soccer-style promotion and relegation system. Silver pushed back on the idea in 2022 and said such a system would destabilize the league.

So what can be done? While Silver has criticized the “overt behaviour” of teams like the Pacers, there is not an obvious solution.

The most widely supported idea is to adjust the current lottery system’s odds. The worst teams currently have 14%, 12.5%, and 10% chances for the top pick.

Dave Deckard of Blazer’s Edge has suggested that once a team has received first pick, they shouldn’t be eligible for X number of years. He acknowledges there is no perfect solution.

Former deputy commissioner Russ Granik has said he was unsure that there is a “perfect world” possible, but thinks the league will “make some improvements” with the “smart people” employed.